Three Future Scenarios for AI in Learning
Exploring potential pathways for technology, people, and organizations.
Constants Across Futures
Antifragile opportunities persist regardless of which future unfolds.
Adaptability
Learning how to learn and navigate change remains paramount.
Practical Application
Bridging the gap between theory and real-world, messy context.
Human-Centric Skills
Empathy, creativity, and leadership as key differentiators.
Measuring ROI
The persistent need to prove the value and effectiveness of learning.
AI Ethics & Governance
Ensuring fairness, transparency, and trust in AI-driven systems.
Learning Design
Strategic expertise to design effective learning ecosystems.
Community
The fundamental need for connection and social learning endures.
Signal vs. Noise
Navigating information overload to find what's truly relevant.
The Pragmatic Patchwork
Most Likely Outcome
AI's Role: Painkiller
Automates basic L&D tasks; addresses acute pain points.
Current trends continue without major breakthroughs. AI adoption is pragmatic and cost-driven, making inefficient processes faster, not necessarily better.
Automated onboarding and compliance training.
Basic content curation and personalization.
Inefficient "scrappy learning" persists for complex skills.
Learning science remains undervalued; focus on "AI literacy."
Human Workforce:
Experiences relief from tedious training but frustration with superficial AI tools. The burden of skill advancement remains on the individual.
The Human-AI Symbiosis
Barriers Removed
AI's Role: Vitamin Stack
Sophisticated enhancement of human capability.
Organizations recognize the strategic value of learning science. A cultural shift towards continuous, AI-augmented learning occurs.
Deeply personalized, workflow-integrated learning.
AI acts as a "Learning Design Partner" for L&D teams.
Proactive and predictive upskilling manages skill gaps.
Focus shifts to applied thinking & human-centric skills.
Human Workforce:
Feels empowered and supported. Learning is an integrated, less burdensome part of work. Humans collaborate closely with AI.
The Algorithmic Org
Significant Tech/Regulatory Shift
AI's Role: Steroids
Fundamentally restructures work and performance.
A major breakthrough (e.g., AGI) or regulatory shift (e.g., UBI) forces a radical rethinking of the nature of human work.
AI agents become the primary workforce for most tasks.
A small, hyper-specialized "Human Delta" emerges.
Traditional corporate L&D becomes largely irrelevant.
Focus shifts to societal-level retraining initiatives.
Human Workforce:
Radically bifurcated. An elite group works in deep symbiosis with AI, while many face job displacement, requiring new social contracts.